2011 will go down as the year nothing really happened but everyone was scared the worst was just around the next political speech or bond auction. The Dow Jones was the only average to make it into the plus column, up 5.5% while the S&P was break-even and the Nasdaq ended down 1.8%.
As noted yesterday, the Hollywood domestic box office was the worst attendance in 16 years. So, what have we learned in 2011, looking back?
1. The markets broke the bull trend and basically traded sideways for the year. As you can see with the MarketBOB Long Wave, the trend broke with Unknown, tried to recover but Fast Five hammered it again and Captain America made it stay down. So much for superheroes saving the day. In general, the Long Wave Truth Rally which started with Watchmen has entered a correction and probably bear market, but it will take some time to confirm the topping action we’ve seen since March.
MarketBOB Long Wave 2011
2. The MarketBOB Short Wave showed two main themes: the disconnect between the small investor and the market, as we’ve moved towards computerized trading and trends made by politics instead of fundamentals and the dismal performance of the DOW during the summer, matched by the terrible summer of sequels put out by Hollywood. This summer session essentially corrected the Short Wave from being disconnected from this crazy market. Nine straight weeks of Bear market movies in the summer avoided the worst of the summer correction. Since then, the movies and the markets have been treading water except for the tumultuous three weekend run of the latest Twilight movie which was not the best sequel, a bear movie but the market was euro-twitchy and scored -3%, +7% and +1.3% for those three weeks.
MarketBOB Short Wave 2011
With the dominance of bear movies since the summer, the MarketBOB Short Wave avoided the two volatile periods in weeks 31-39 and weeks 44-47, ending the year positive, like the DOW but ahead by almost 4%.
For more details of the MarketBOB short and long waves, please refer to my book, Movies We Love in Times of Depression, available for $2.99 as an Amazon Kindle ebook.
As always, you can keep coming back to MarketBOB.com for updates on movies and the mood of audiences in 2012. It will be another crazy year of superheroes, vampires and fairy tales. See this Yahoo preview of the most anticipated movies in 2012!
Happy New Year.